"My coworker turned $2K into $80K on a meme coin called GROK"
Success rate 0.3%
Median outcome -$1,847
FRIEND RANK: 99.7th
2m
Every viral win is a tail.
Your friend got lucky. Here is the math.
The Receipts turns any lucky-break claim into 100 simulated parallel timelines and a brutal histogram. Paste the brag. See the distribution. Kill the FOMO.
No login. No data stored. Math only.
100 timelines / claim 0.4% memecoin base rate 47 hidden costs / brag
The Receipt Machine
Paste a claim. Generate the distribution. Print the math.
Risk profile
Category
Your receipt will print here.
Try: "turned $500 into $50K on PEPE in 30 days"
The math behind the receipt
Survivorship bias, decoded in three steps.
STEP 01
You see the winner
For every viral screenshot of a 100x gain, there is a vast invisible graveyard of identical bets that went to zero. The poster is the only one shouting.
1 in ~10,000 memecoin picks makes the screenshotSTEP 02
We simulate the rest
The Receipts runs 100 Monte Carlo timelines using published base rates for the exact bet class, realistic volatility, and a 5–10% luck factor.
100 timelines · ~3s computeSTEP 03
You see the distribution
The histogram is the truth the brag omitted. Median, percentiles, ruin rate, and your friend's exact rank in the curve.
Median outcome: −87% of betBase Rate Library
12 pre-loaded scenarios. Click "Try this claim" to drop one into the Receipt Machine.
| Category | Sample claim | Success rate ↑ | Median outcome | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | "I hit a 10-leg parlay for $40K" | 0.05% | -$200 | |
| Memecoin | "turned $500 into $50K on PEPE" | 0.4% | -$487 | |
| Side Hustle | "I make $30K/mo on OnlyFans" | 0.6% | $0 | |
| Stock / IPO | "my friend joined a pre-IPO startup and got rich" | 1.2% | $0 (illiquid) | |
| Other | "I flipped an NFT for 50 ETH" | 1.8% | -$300 | |
| Side Hustle | "my AI startup hit $50K MRR in 3 months" | 2.1% | $400 MRR | |
| Side Hustle | "my friend makes $20K/mo dropshipping" | 4% | -$1,200 lifetime | |
| Other | "I bought 0DTE SPY calls and doubled up" | 6% | -60% | |
| Move Abroad | "my cousin moved to Dubai and tripled his salary" | 18% | +40% (2y breakeven) | |
| Stock / IPO | "I bought Tesla at IPO in 2010" | 23% | +18% | |
| Real Estate | "bought a duplex and lives for free" | 27% | breakeven | |
| Career Pivot | "I learned to code at 35 and broke in" | 34% | +$12K salary |
What the brag doesn't mention
Six invisible cost categories the receipt surfaces after every simulation.
Recent receipts from the wild
A live wall of community-submitted claims and their computed verdicts.
"My brother bought NVDA at $4 in 2015"
Success rate 11%
Median outcome +$8.20/sh
FRIEND RANK: 89th
8m
"My friend quit his job to day-trade"
Success rate 3%
Median outcome -$22K yr 1
FRIEND RANK: 97th
14m
"Sister moved to Singapore and doubled her salary"
Success rate 18%
Median outcome +22%
FRIEND RANK: 82nd
21m
"Guy at the gym makes $50K/mo flipping NFTs"
Success rate 1.8%
Median outcome -$1,400
FRIEND RANK: 99.2nd
34m
"Neighbor bought SPY 0DTE calls and tripled"
Success rate 6%
Median outcome -58%
FRIEND RANK: 94th
47m
"My cousin bought Tesla at IPO"
Success rate 23%
Median outcome +18%
FRIEND RANK: 77th
1h
"Cofounder sold his AI wrapper for $5M"
Success rate 2.1%
Median outcome $400 MRR
FRIEND RANK: 99.1st
2h
"Friend became a life coach and charges $500/hr"
Success rate 8%
Median outcome -$2,400 cert
FRIEND RANK: 92nd
3h
Bookmark the receipt machine. Use it on the next brag.
The next time your cousin brags about crypto, your coworker pitches a sure thing, or your timeline fills with 100x screenshots, you'll have the math in 30 seconds.
No login. No app. No data stored. Paste, generate, share. Bookmark this page — you will need it again by Friday.
Built once. Runs forever. No feeds, no team, no maintenance.